Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Petrol Price : UPDATE 2-China raises fuel prices 3-4 pct to record highs


China will raise the ceiling for retail prices of gasoline and diesel by 3 to 4 percent from Wednesday, the first hike in 10 months and a move that lifts prices to record highs and can help refineries improve margins.

The increase, at 300 yuan per tonne or roughly 4 cents a litre, was much anticipated by the market and offset a previous price cut last October.

"The price rise is conducive to motivating refiners and ensuring domestic fuel supplies," the National Development & Reform Commission, the country's economic planner, said in a statement on its website (www.ndrc.gov.cn)

The government timed the price increase as domestic inflationary pressure has eased and after millions of Chinese returned from the Lunar New Year celebrations.

Policymakers have indicated in recent comments that price pressures are easing, suggesting inflation is not an urgent priority.

An earlier domestic diesel shortage has also eased after oil firms raised production to record rates during the last two months of 2011.

"Demand has weakened during the Chinese New Year holiday period and inventory has climbed, so supply tightness has eased," said a Sinopec fuel marketing official.

Following the adjustment, retail gasoline prices will go up by 3.3 percent from Oct. 9 levels to 9,380 yuan per tonne, or about $1.06 per litre. Diesel prices will rise by 3.6 percent to 8,530 yuan, or about $1.11 per litre, according to Reuters calculations.

The move will improve refining margins for leading oil firms such as Petroleum and Chemical Corp (Sinopec) and PetroChina , which have long struggled with depressed margins.

Refineries run by Sinopec Corp are operating at a loss even though the top Chinese oil company by sales raised ex-factory fuel prices and extended other incentives this year, several refinery officials said.

NEW SCHEME

The NDRC sets fuel prices using a secret formula based on a basket of crude oil prices, including the price of Brent, Dubai and Cinta.

The government fell short of announcing a new fuel pricing scheme that is more market-linked, which the industry had expected to see as early as December.

"The new fuel pricing scheme is in the process of revamping. We will solicit public opinion after all aspects reach consensus about the new scheme," NDRC said.

The NDRC normally starts to consider changing fuel prices if the 22-day moving average of international crude oil prices rises or falls more than 4 percent, in addition to giving consideration to other factors such as inflation, fuel supply and demand.

A revamp could include shortening the adjustment period from 22 working days and changing the composition of the basket of crudes to which pump prices are linked.

Such a scheme would bolster refining margins and help prevent the shortages that have often plagued the world's second-largest fuel market as oil refiners are discouraged to pump at a loss.

NDRC said China's oil supplies are facing "severe challenges", given that the Iranian nuclear crisis trigger volatility and a surge in global oil prices, making it more necessary to push through price reform to curb excessive consumption.

China's top refineries will trim their crude oil processing volumes in February to the lowest levels in four months after running hard in winter to meet a seasonal demand spike and ensure ample supplies during Chinese New Year holidays, a Reuters poll showed.

Political tension surrounding Iran and the Middle East, along with a severe cold snap across Europe, have lifted oil prices in recent weeks. Front-month Brent touched $116.70 per barrel, its highest since early August, on Tuesday.

China's last retail ceiling price change was on Oct. 9, when the government cut gasoline and diesel by about 3 percent to reflect falls in global crude oil prices. ($1 = 6.312 Chinese Yuan) (Writing by Fayen Wong, Additional reporting by Jim Bai, editing by Jane Baird) Read More

Petrol Price : Expert expects gas prices in Chicago to hit $4.60 by May


Get ready for another round of pain at the pump: gas at $4 (or higher) a gallon. After rising 19 cents a gallon in the past four weeks, regular unleaded gasoline now averages $3.48 a gallon, vs. $3.12 a year ago and $2.67 in February 2010. And prices could spike another 60 cents or more by May.

“I think it’s going to be a chaotic spring, with huge price increases in some places,” says Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service, who expects average prices to peak at $4.05 nationally, although he and other industry trackers say prices could be sharply higher in some places, such as Chicago.

“You could see prices in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Washington and other major metropolitan areas at $4.60 or higher,” agrees energy analyst Patrick DeHaan of price tracker Gasbuddy.com.

Rising prices are an annual spring ritual, due largely to seasonal demand. Refiners also switch from winter formulations to more expensive seasonal formulations to meet stringent environmental standards, which can tack on 15 cents a gallon, says Brian Milne of energy tracker Televent DTN.

This year’s earlier-than-usual run-up is more about anticipation than current supply and demand. Last week, the Energy Department reported anemic U.S. consumption -- the lowest levels since September 2001. Domestic crude oil prices, now about $98 a barrel, are near six-week lows.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East are bolstering crude prices, while speculators are boosting futures contracts, betting on global supply disruptions and tighter refining capacity. Kloza notes that several U.S. and overseas refiners have experienced temporary or permanent closures.

So far, $4 a gallon has proven to be the upper limit consumers will pay. Last April, national prices peaked at about $3.98 a gallon. In 2008, a sharp run-up ended when prices hit an all-time average of $4.11 a gallon that summer.

“Higher demand, Iran, lost refining capacity are all potential problems,” Milne says. “We’ll get over $4 a gallon, but it’s going to be tough to sustain that level. People will drive less.”

Lisa Margonelli, author of Oil on the Brain: Petroleum’s Long, Strange Trip to Your Tank, says consumers will be vulnerable to rising prices until the U.S. develops alternative fuels such as natural gas.

“The increase in gas prices last year sucked $100 billion out of the economy,” she says. “We aren’t going to get a break because there is no long-term grand strategy to keep prices down.” Read More

Petrol Price : Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of February 6, 2012


March Crude Oil closed lower last week after posting an expanded range. The market continued its downslide that began five weeks ago when it topped out at $103.90.

Heavy selling pressure early in the week drove the market close to a key 50 percent price level at $95.40. After it reached the low for the week on Thursday at $95.44, traders showed their respect for the 50 percent level by creating a short-covering rally that prevented the market from closing on its low.

The weekly chart indicates layers of support this week. The first level is the aforementioned $95.40. This is followed by uptrending Gann angle support at $93.92. A break through this price will set up the market for a test of the December 16 swing bottom at $92.95.

A possible double-top chart pattern is still in the works with $103.20 and $103.90 the key highs. A trade through these levels will reaffirm the main uptrend while a break through $92.95 will not only turn the main trend to down, but it will also confirm the double-top.

Based on the main range of $75.92 to $103.90, a break through $92.95 will put the market in a position to test another 50 percent to 61.8 percent retracement zone at $89.91 to $86.61. Given the nature of the trade in the crude oil market, traders should always watch for technical bounces when support or resistance levels are reached.

The stronger U.S. Dollar early in the week had much to do with the crude oil weakness. As the Greenback improved, commodities priced in dollars became more expensive and their demand fell. This action contributed to crude oil’s over 3 percent drop from Monday to Thursday. The market stabilized a bit ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report, and rallied on Friday when the report came out better than analysts expected.

The fact that crude oil is trading near an important mid-point on the charts is a strong indication of indecision. Since topping near $104.00, crude oil has steadily declined on low demand for product despite better U.S. economic reports. Additionally, prices have fallen since the European Union decided to postpone an embargo of Iranian crude oil. Finally, the easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz has also given bullish traders an excuse to book profits. In addition, speculators took out the “war” premium. Psychologically, the failure to hold $100 per barrel probably helped accelerate the market’s decline the past two weeks.

The chart action indicates both trader uncertainty and trader indifference. The uncertainty is being triggered by worries that Greece may not be able to negotiate favorable debt structure terms with the European Union. The fact that oil has been falling for weeks while the Euro has been rising is proof of this. The weaker Dollar has not fueled upside price activity at all, but a strong Dollar, on the other hand, has translated into downside pressure.

The rising stock market has not helped crude prices either. This is a strong indication that although there is demand for higher yielding assets, institutions and fund managers have decided to leave crude oil out of their portfolios.

This leads me to conclude that the supply and demand situation is having the biggest influence on the market at this time. It took a while, but traders have finally caught on to the fact that supply is rising and this means lower prices to follow.

Trader should watch for the decline to continue early this week, however, short-traders should be careful not to get caught in a wicked short-covering rally when the market tests the key support levels at $93.92, $92.95 or $89.91.

Factors Affecting Crude Oil This Week:

Supply and Demand: Demand continues to fall, driving up supply. This is the simple explanation for the recent drop in prices. Until the weekly inventory report begins to show an uptrend, traders should expect this report to cast a bearish pall on the market.

European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Uncertainty over Greece is hurting crude oil prices. On February 9 the European Central Bank is going to decide monetary policy. Last month it held interest rates steady at 1.00 percent, triggering the start of a rally in the Euro. Traders will be watching to see if the central bank remains optimistic about the Euro Zone economic situation. If traders buy the Euro with clarity and conviction then the Dollar will fall. At some point, oil traders are going to have to pounce on the market if prices become cheap enough.

Geopolitical Events: Taking Iran out of the equation has definitely hurt prices. Speculators have left the market but can quickly return if a bullish situation arises.

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Petrol Price : Winter weather sends Brent crude to six-month high


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Brent crude hit a six-month high on the back of the continuing severe European winter weather, while concerns of rising tensions in Iran also added to supply concerns.

With temperatures plunging across Europe and Russia, Moscow has diverted its natural gas for exports for domestic usage, causing a shortage. European energy groups are turning to gas-oil for heating, and in Italy, power plants are to switch from gas to fuel oil, as a way of reducing gas consumption.

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ICE March Brent hit $116.70 a barrel, its highest level since last August. In European early afternoon trading, the global benchmark was up 5 cents at $115.88 a barrel.

The rise in heating oil demand has meant that refining margins have increased. The price differential between gas oil and Brent crude widened by 54 cents to $17.22 a barrel, suggesting a further rise in crude oil prices as refiners turn to buy more crude oil to meet demand.

“While a late season cold snap tends to pack less of a punch and gas oil stocks are generally healthy, a more severe cold period or consumer rush to buy may strain the European gasoil balance given a heavy first quarter refinery maintenance period,” said analysts at Deutsche Bank.

The current level of Brent in dollars per barrel is higher than March of last year and in euros per barrel, “it is higher than at the peak of the Libyan war,” said Olivier Jakob at oil consultants Petromatrix based in Switzerland.

With Japan also facing a colder than normal winter, as well as forecasts pointing to a colder than average February-April, demand for heating oil is expected to remain firm.

Fears of a ratcheting up of tensions between the west and Iran caused by US proposals of tightening sanctions also added to expectations of a further crude oil price rally.

Across the Atlantic, the West Texas Intermediate continued to weaken on oversupply worries. The Nymex March WTI fell 81 cents a barrel to $96.11. The fall in the US benchmark meant that the price differential between Brent and WTI jumped, hitting $20 for the first time since October. Read More

Petrol Price : Oil companies hike fuel prices anew


After cutting back fuel prices in the past two weeks, they have again increased fuel prices to reflect the slight increase in world oil prices last week.

In separate text messages, Chevron Philippines Inc., Petron Corp., Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp., Seaoil Philippines Inc., and Total (Philippines) Corp. said they hiked the price of unleaded and premium gasoline by P0.25 per liter, regular gasoline by P0.60 per liter, and diesel and kerosene by P0.30 per liter at 6 a.m., Tuesday.

The latest price adjustment is the first for the month, after two price cuts in the last two weeks of January, local oil companies have increased unleaded and premium gasoline prices by P2.65 per liter, regular gasoline by P2.55 per liter, diesel by P1 per liter, and kerosene by P0.80 per liter.

According to the Department of Energy monitoring, following the price increase the suggested retail price of unleaded and premium gasoline now amounts to P50.98 per liter to 59.09 per liter, diesel P43.84 per liter to P47.43 per liter, and kerosene P49.91 per liter to P55.46 per liter.Read More

Petrol Price : COLUMN-Spot oil's rise masks steady prices in 2015


Forward oil prices are trading at record discounts as the market responds to fears about near-term shortfalls while also pricing in a big increase in supplies from the Americas and the Middle East over the next four years.

Front-month Brent futures have been trading above $116 a barrel, the highest level since November and before that September 2011, as freezing weather across Europe, signs of revival in North America and renewed interest in the Brent-WTI spread shake the oil market out of its recent torpor.

But prices for deferred futures contracts such as December 2015 have barely moved and remain firmly stuck below $100.

Throughout the boom of 2004-2008, spot and forward oil prices increasingly moved in tandem. Prices along the length of the curve became tightly integrated as well as correlated with other asset classes such as equities. But spot and forward oil prices are now segmented, both from one another and from share markets.

Four-year forward prices are trading at a record discount of $19 per barrel (20 percent) compared with oil for immediate delivery.

Deferred prices have historically been much less volatile, and analysts usually claim they are a better guide to market expectations about the long-term marginal cost of production.

During the 2008 price spike, forward prices generally rose in line with the spot market, cresting over $140 by July 2008, as traders anticipated immediate shortages and lack of spare capacity would last indefinitely in a world of peaking oil supplies.Read More

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