Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Gold Price Today: per ounce Spot gold price per gram; Silver price per ounce Today; Gold Silver Trend News


The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen during the second trading session of this week. The dollar climbed higher versus the euro and the Japanese yen last session and this action pressured precious metal commodity positioning.

Spot gold and spot silver prices were mixed to open the trading session and as the day progressed, both trend-lines fell into the red. Precious metal gold and silver contracts were posting red at the mid-day mark last session and the negative trend-line movement for gold contract prices continued through the end of day close. Gold and silver prices finished the day mixed.

Gold contract price and Silver contract price close review today:
April contract gold closed the last trading session in the red by .33 percent at 1694.20 per troy ounce. Silver contract for May delivery finished the last session higher by .50 percent at 33.58 per troy ounce.

Spot gold per gram and spot silver per ounce price trend review today:
After last session close and prior to today’s opening bell, spot gold price trends and spot silver price trends were posting in the red. Spot gold price per gram was at 53.35 and spot silver price per ounce was posting lower at 32.90. Read More

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Gold Price Today: Opportunity Knocks — A Note on Recent Gold-Price Action


This past week’s dramatic gold-price action - with the metal falling some 5.8% from a Wednesday high of $1,790 an ounce (in European trading) to a low of $1,687 (in after-hours New York trading) - does nothing to dissuade us from our super-bullish long-term view of gold-price prospects.

Indeed, we have often warned clients and readers of NicholsOnGold to expect occasional episodes of great price volatility with sizable corrections that would lead many investors and pundits to prematurely eulogize the end of gold’s bull run. Wednesday’s decline was just such a correction – and it wasn’t even that dramatic despite all the media brouhaha.

In the context of gold’s past performance – up some 500% or 19% annually over the past ten years and 14% this year through Tuesday evening before latest price correction – a little backtracking should be little surprise.

Had some popular stock-market equity fallen one dollar from $17.90 to $16.87 – also a 5.8% decline – hardly anyone would notice. But such is gold’s glamour and glitter, with so many either loving it or hating it, that it made the Wednesday evening news.

As best as we can tell, the correction was entirely a paper-market affair – with the bulk of selling occurring on Comex, the US gold futures market, where speculative long positions equivalent to some 10 million ounces were literally dumped on the market in fairly short order.

Some say the selling was touched off by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Wednesday morning Congressional testimony on monetary policy and the state of the economy. By citing tentative signs of economic recovery while saying nothing about a possible third round of quantitative easing, or QE3 in the jargon of economists, the Chairman may have disappointed those who were betting on more monetary stimulus, thereby deflating any QE3 premium already in the market’s gold valuation.

Others say technical factors, especially the loss of upward momentum as the price approached $1,800 an ounce, triggered the sell off – aided, abetted, and exacerbated by automatic program trading and stop-loss selling.

Our forecast of much higher gold prices depends not one iota on the day-to-day ups and downs, no matter how extreme, in the yellow metal’s price. Instead, the average long-term price is entirely a function of world economic and political developments, which affect the intensity of investor interest (what we might call long-term hoarding demand) and on gold’s own supply/demand fundamentals.

Gold Price Today: CANADA STOCKS-TSX to extend loss as economic worries weigh


Toronto's main stock index looked set to open lower on Tuesday, extending Monday's lossesas renewed worries over the prospect of a recession in Europe and a slowdown in growth in resource-hungry China rattled investors.

A disorderly Greek default could leave Italy and Spain needing outside help to stop contagion spreading and cause more than 1 trillion euros of damage to the euro zone, a group representing Athens' bondholders warned.

FACTORS TO WATCH

* Canadian equity futures pointed to a lower open.

* U.S. stock index futures fell on renewed concerns that Greece and private bondholders would not meet a Thursday deadline to complete a debt swap, potentially opening the way for a messy default.

* European shares hit a one-week low morning as fresh concerns about growth in Europe and China, the world's top metals consumer, prompted investors to cut their risk exposure.

COMMODITY PRICE MOVES

* The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a global commodities benchmark, fell 0.45 percent in early trade.

* Brent crude futures fell more than $1 on concern about the health of the global economy.

* Gold prices fell more than 1 percent in Europe, pushing through support at $1,690 an ounce, as jitters over whether private creditors will agree to a Greek bond swap deal and wider euro zone growth pressured the euro.

* Copper fell for a third straight day, pulled lower by a stronger dollar and concerns about slower growth in China.

CANADIAN STOCKS TO WATCH

* Bank of Nova Scotia : The bank's first-quarter profit rose 15 percent, mainly helped by stronger trading revenue, and the bank raised its dividend.

* Centamin : The miner said it has temporarily halted operations at its flagship Sukari gold mine due to "illegal labour unrest".

* Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. : The oil and gas company said natural gas volumes that were shut-in in west central Alberta were back in production after it completed expanding its infrastructure in the region.

* Aecon Group Inc. : The construction company reported a 143 percent rise in quarterly earnings as margins improved on lower costs.

* Major Drilling Group International : The metals and minerals contract drilling services company reported a jump in third-quarter profit on continued demand from gold and copper projects.

ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS

Following is a summary of research actions on Canadian companies reported by Reuters.

* Adriana Resources : National Bank Financial starts with outperform

* National Bank of Canada : CIBC raises price target to C$83 from C$80; BMO raises price target to C$87 from C$82; TD Securities raises price target to C$85 from C$81; Macquarie raises target price to C$85 from C$83

* Primaris Retail : Canaccord Genuity raises price target to C$24 from C$23.25; Macquarie raises price target to C$23.50 from C$22.50; TD securities raises price target to C$25 from C$24, rating buy

* Surge Energy : CIBC raises price target to C$13.50 from C$11; BMO raises price target to C$13 from C$12.50, rating outperform; Macquarie raises price target to C$14 from C$13, rating outperform

* Strad Energy Services : Paradigm capital raises price target to C$9 from C$7

* TransAlta Corp. : Canaccord Genuity cuts price target to c$23 from C$25; National Bank Financial cuts price target by C$1 to C$19; RBC cuts price target to C$19 from C$20; TD Securites cuts price target to C$19 from C$20, rating holdRead More

Gold Price Today: Gold Closes Lower On Global Cues


Gold futures closed lower for a second straight day Monday, mostly on some negative economic news from across the world with China cutting down its economic growth target for the year. Prices were also impacted by some weak economic data from Europe and the U.S.

Gold for April delivery, the most actively traded contract, dropped $5.90 or 0.3 percent to $1703.90 an ounce Monday on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold traded at an intraday high of $1,718.00 an ounce and a low of $1,694.40 an ounce.

The precious metal had registered a loss of about 3.7 percent last week with investors preferring to drop riskier assets. Gold prices dropped more than 4 percent on Wednesday after the U.S. Fed failed to give any indication of further quantitative easing.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against six major currencies, traded at 79.31 on Monday, down from 79.82 late on Friday. The dollar had scaled a high of 79.58 intraday.

The euro made gains against the dollar, reversing a three-day decline, as traders weighed the impact of China lowering its economic growth target for the year. Investors also await some key data from Europe and the U.S. during this week, including the Greek bond swap deal.

The euro traded higher against the dollar at $1.3224 on Monday, from $1.3197 late Friday. The euro had scaled a high of $1.3240 intraday.

China lowered its economic growth target for the year, indicating a deviation from its focus on rapid growth. China will now aim for 7.5 percent economic growth this year, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Monday at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress in Beijing. China had maintained the growth target at 8 percent for the past eight years.

The Chinese economy expanded 9.2 percent in 2011, easing from 10.4 percent in 2010.

Activity in the U.S. service sector unexpectedly expanded to 57.3 in February from 56.8 in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management in a report on Monday. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the service sector. Economists expected the index to edge down to 56.0.

Nevertheless, the ISM employment index declined to 55.7 percent from 57.4 percent last month, with the price index inflation gauge surging to 68.4 percent from 63.5 percent last month.

The eurozone composite purchasing managers index dropped to 49.3 in February from 50.4 in January, below the prior preliminary estimate of 49.7, according to data released by Markit Monday. A reading of less than 50 is indicative of contraction in private-sector business.Read More

Gold Price Today: Spot Gold Prices Pulling Back - Fred Dunsel


Gold prices plummeted last Wednesday after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments to Congress appeared to rule out further monetary easing. At one point, around $100 was wiped off the price during New York trading. By Friday, gold ended at $1,709.80 an ounce, its lowest settlement price since 25 January.

Despite last week’s dramatic price drop, many analysts remain bullish about gold. More than half the participants in the most recent Kitco News Gold Survey are confident that gold prices will continue to rise. Some analysts pointed out that investors remain confident in gold's appeal, given that real interest rates remain low and inflation remains a long-term concern for many.

Another key factor that will determine the future trajectory of gold prices is the physical demand, particularly from Asia. Last week’s price dip below $1,700 saw many Asian investors rush in to buy the precious metal, with many seeing it as a healthy correction, rather than the start of a bear market. Carlos Perez-Santalla, a precious metals broker at PVM Futures, who remains bullish about gold, noted that “worldwide economic and political factors have not changed.” As a testimony of gold’s continued attractiveness, Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS, pointed out that “a cheaper gold price last Thursday elicited a hard-to-miss response from physical players across various regions.” James Steel, chief commodity analyst at HSBC, agreed, saying that "declines of this magnitude, however, often attract emerging-market buyers and may also interest potential central bank buyers.”

Nonetheless, price volatility is likely to remain the norm in the coming weeks, as investors are wary about unexpected market developments. Jeffery Wright, a managing director and metals analyst with Global Hunter Securities, said, “You have traders and investors who do not want to be holding the bag if we do go into a real correction in gold prices. They’ll head to the exits very quickly without waiting to see what the aftermath is.” Read More

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Gold Price Today: Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast March 2012


Outlook and Recommendation

Following the sharp gains for Gold prices during January when gold prices rose by 11% and the situation in February was much different. Gold price increased by only 2.07% from the end of January. What were the events and decisions that may have affected the direction of gold. Part of it might have to do with the recent decision of the EU leaders to approve the bailout package for Greece.

Gold prices started February with little changes; this no-trend, however soon turned into sharp gains.

If we separate February into two parts: with the breaking point at February 17th; during the first part of February, gold declined by 0.8%. During the second part of February, gold price climbed by 2.9%.

During the first part of February, the U.S dollar slightly depreciated against the Euro, the Canadian and Australian dollar; the last two currencies are usually strongly correlated with gold; during the second part of February, the U.S dollar sharply depreciated mainly against the Euro; this shift might partly explain the sharp increase of gold during the second part of the month.

Although this simplifies everything, there were a great deal of geopolitical problems, financial and economic crisis and turmoil, throughout the world, but mostly from the eurozone. When the markets are uneasy they turn to gold, and we saw this several times over the past few months. Global problems have no subsided, but investors are becoming more confident in the handling of these problems by the EU and are therefore taking on more risk. With slow but steady improvement in the US, investors are moving from the USD and Gold looking for more appealing investments. The short term for Gold will be a continued fall to trade between 1675 and 1700 throughout the end of the month and to increase over the second quarter moving towards 1800.

Understanding Gold:

When fundamental AND technical forces are in alignment, as with the current situation in gold, price action traders have an extremely valuable opportunity because trading with price action allows for much more accurate entries than other methods as well as providing traders with a “set and forget” style of trading when used in combination with simple risk to reward scenarios.

Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, wealthy investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets. Gold prices are on the rise again. You now buy three gold contracts. By the end of the week, each contract is up by 100 points. You make a cool $3,000 when you sell the three contracts. This way, you complete your third trade in a series of four trades.

This is a very simple gold trading strategy that depends on pyramiding your position with a series of four trades and removing all the profit from your account at the end of these four trades. With practice, you will find this gold trading strategy very simple and easy to implement.

Gold reacts to uncertainity in the markets A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold. Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunties when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets. Read More

Gold Price Today: Gold futures - Weekly outlook: March 5 - 9


Gold prices ended lower on Friday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar reduced the appeal of the precious metal while investors continued to readjust positions after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke diminished expectations for more U.S. monetary easing earlier in the week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery settled at USD1,713.35 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday, retreating 3.43% over the week, the largest weekly drop since mid-December.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,689.95 a troy ounce, the low from February 29 and short-term resistance at USD1,726.95, the high from March 1.

Gold’s losses on Friday came as the U.S. dollar rallied against its major counterparts, as investors shunned riskier assets amid fresh concerns over the debt crisis in the euro zone.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.82% to settle the week at 79.48, the highest since February 17. On the week, the index climbed 1.32%.

Meanwhile, gold traders continued to rebalance their portfolios after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke dampened expectations for a third round of monetary easing in testimony to Congress on Wednesday.

Fed Chair Bernanke acknowledged the recent improvement in the labor market and said that higher oil prices could push up inflation.

Prices plunged almost 5% following Bernanke’s speech, or nearly USD80 per ounce, its largest one-day loss since December 2008, as traders unwound long positions fuelled by expectations a third round of bond-buying was imminent.

Technical selling also pressured gold after it failed to sustain gains above the USD1,790-an-ounce-level and break through key resistance at USD1,800.

Losses accelerated once prices dropped below USD1,700 an ounce, triggering fresh sell orders from hedge funds and large institutional investors and pushing down prices to as low as USD1,686 an ounce, the lowest since January 25.

Further weighing on the metal, market participants noted a large sell order on the Comex, said to have been 1 million ounces, or 31 tonnes, prompted by the Bernanke testimony.

Bernanke's remarks hit gold particularly hard because heavy bullish bets had been positioned leading up to Bernanke’s testimony and after the European Central Bank's second three-year long-term refinancing operation.

Gold prices rallied in recent weeks, boosted by growing expectations for further monetary easing measures from global central banks. Despite this week's pullback, the metal is still 9% higher this year after the Fed said in January it would keep U.S. interest rates near zero until at least 2014.

Earlier Wednesday, gold prices spiked to a three-month high of USD1,792.15 after the European Central Bank allotted EUR529.5 billion in loans to 800 lenders in its second long-term refinancing operation.

Under the operation, banks receive three-year loans in return for collateral at a rate fixed to the ECB's refinance rate of 1%. Together with the first auction, the ECB has now injected EUR1 trillion of 3-year funds into the system.

Gold can benefit from such an environment of easy money because of expectations that ample liquidity would put a damper on the value of paper currencies and boost inflation.

In the near-term, global financial service provider HSBC Holdings sees further downside to gold prices, citing the metal’s inability to clear USD1,800 an ounce and the paucity of emerging-market buying in recent weeks.

In the longer term, however, the bank expects prices to remain well-supported “even without further easing, as monetary policy is still highly accommodative.”

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for May delivery settled USD34.81 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday, falling 1.95% on the week in volatile price swings.

Silver prices rallied nearly 4% on Tuesday to hit the highest level since mid-September, after prices broke through a key resistance level close to USD35.73 a troy ounce.

Futures gave back those gains and more on Wednesday, plunging almost 7%, weighed down by the Bernanke speech. Despite the sharp drop, futures are still up almost 25% since the start of 2012.

Meanwhile, copper for May delivery rose 1.2% over the week to settle at USD3.906 a pound.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s data on U.S. non-farm payrolls, to gauge the strength of the country’s economic recovery. Market participants will also be continuing to watch developments in Europe, ahead of an interest rate announcement by the ECB on Thursday.Read More

Gold Price Today : Gold, Silver and Oil Trading GLD, SLV, USO


SPDR Gold Trust (ETF), NYSE:GLD, iShares Silver Trust (ETF), NYSE:SLV, United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) NYSE:USO

Gold, Silver and Oil


The Overall Fundamentals
The commodity sector reversed gains last week due to a number of reasons ranging from concerns over the downside risks to the global economic recovery to ongoing worries on the sovereign debt crisis in the EuroZone to dampened hopes about the the US Fed’s QE-3 intentions.

Precious Metals
The precious metal complex fell led by Gold and Silver. The precious Yellow metal fell more than $100 on the US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony last Wednesday.

Investors viewed that the Chairman’s expectation that growth in the coming quarters would be ‘at a pace close to or somewhat above the pace that was registered during the second half of last year’ is an indication of no further quantitative easing (QE).

The disappointment was exacerbated by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s comment that no further easing is needed as US economic data improves. He also expected US’ unemployment rate to drop to 7.8% by the end of this year as a ‘moderate expansion’ helps improve the labor market.

Although speculations of further quantitative easing (QE) by the US Fed have been tamed, this has not dampened LTN’s Bullish POV on Gold’s. Shayne and I both believe that monetary policy by central banks will be positive for the precious Yellow metal.

Note: Gold, despite persistent sovereign debt crisis in the EuroZone, has not been rising in tandem with the USD like it did in last few years. So, we believe that the Fed will continue to weigh growth higher than inflation while the ECB prioritizes price stability. This would give the USD better opportunity to depreciate further, thus boosting Gold price. Another issue is that further rises in Crude Oil prices may deteriorate the US recovery prospect, making the Fed more “Dovish” in its monetary stance.
Energy

In the Crude Oil complex, the front-month contract for WTI Crude Oil fell for the 1st time in 4 wks, by -2.80%, to settle at 106.7 on Friday. The contract rose to a 9-month high of 110.55 earlier in the week. The equivalent Brent Crude contract slipped -1.45% last week, after rising for 5 straight weeks.

As tensions over Iran escalated over the past months, Crude Oil prices rose on worries that Crude Oil suspension in Iran would bid up prices, affecting especially European buyers.

Crude Oil prices continued rallying earlier in the week with WTI and Brent Crude tapped important levels above 110 and above 125 respectively, after a report stating that a pipeline in Saudi Arabia was attacked. The rumor was denied by Saudi’s spokesman, but the dramatic reaction in the Crude Oil market indicated investors’ sensitivity on possible Crude Oil supply shortage.

There has been talk in recent weeks, as Crude Oil prices rose, that the fragile Global economic recovery would be hampered by rising Crude Oil prices. Such concerns became apparent as Brent Crude Thursday breached the Y 2011-high and approached the Y 2008 crisis mark.

In the surveillance note to the G-20, the IMF warned of major downside risks, including risks from high Crude Oil prices, facing the Global economy.

The World lender stated that ‘the overarching risk remains an intensified Global ‘paradox of thrift’ as households, firms, and governments around the world reduce demand…This risk is further exacerbated by fragile financial systems, high public deficits and debt and already-low interest rates’. It went on to say that ‘advanced economies are experiencing weak and bumpy growth, reflecting both the legacies from the crisis and spillovers from Europe’.

Despite approval of the 2nd bailout to Greece, market confidence towards the 17-nation EuroZone has remained weak.

Following S&P’s downgrade of Greece’s rating, Moody’s announced that the debt-ridden Country’s rating to C from Ca, warning that investors participating in the country’s PSI program would likely receive less than 70% of the face value of their holdings as the deal contains ‘a distressed exchange, and hence a default’.

Spain breached its commitment with the EU and raised its deficit target of 5.8% of GDP this year from previous goal of 4.4%. These added worries to the region’s economy as well as the Euro.

Nat Gas prices weakened again last week. The DOE-EIA reported that gas inventory dropped -82 bcf to 2 595 bcf in the week ended 24 February. Stocks were +756 bcf above the same period last year and +780 bcf, or +45.0%, above the 5-yr average of 1 733 bcf.

Baker Hughes reported that the number of gas rigs fell -19 units to 691 in the week ended March 2. Oil rigs soared +28 units to 1 293 and miscellaneous rigs dipped -1 unit to 5, sending the total number of rigs to 1 989 units. Directionally oriented combined oil, gas, and miscellaneous rigs climbed +5 units to 215 while horizontal rigs increased +5 units to 1 170 and vertical rigs fell -2 units to 604 during the week. Read More

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