Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Gold Price Today: per ounce Spot gold price per gram; Silver price per ounce Today; Gold Silver Trend News


The U.S. dollar continued to strengthen during the second trading session of this week. The dollar climbed higher versus the euro and the Japanese yen last session and this action pressured precious metal commodity positioning.

Spot gold and spot silver prices were mixed to open the trading session and as the day progressed, both trend-lines fell into the red. Precious metal gold and silver contracts were posting red at the mid-day mark last session and the negative trend-line movement for gold contract prices continued through the end of day close. Gold and silver prices finished the day mixed.

Gold contract price and Silver contract price close review today:
April contract gold closed the last trading session in the red by .33 percent at 1694.20 per troy ounce. Silver contract for May delivery finished the last session higher by .50 percent at 33.58 per troy ounce.

Spot gold per gram and spot silver per ounce price trend review today:
After last session close and prior to today’s opening bell, spot gold price trends and spot silver price trends were posting in the red. Spot gold price per gram was at 53.35 and spot silver price per ounce was posting lower at 32.90. Read More

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Gold Price Today: Opportunity Knocks — A Note on Recent Gold-Price Action


This past week’s dramatic gold-price action - with the metal falling some 5.8% from a Wednesday high of $1,790 an ounce (in European trading) to a low of $1,687 (in after-hours New York trading) - does nothing to dissuade us from our super-bullish long-term view of gold-price prospects.

Indeed, we have often warned clients and readers of NicholsOnGold to expect occasional episodes of great price volatility with sizable corrections that would lead many investors and pundits to prematurely eulogize the end of gold’s bull run. Wednesday’s decline was just such a correction – and it wasn’t even that dramatic despite all the media brouhaha.

In the context of gold’s past performance – up some 500% or 19% annually over the past ten years and 14% this year through Tuesday evening before latest price correction – a little backtracking should be little surprise.

Had some popular stock-market equity fallen one dollar from $17.90 to $16.87 – also a 5.8% decline – hardly anyone would notice. But such is gold’s glamour and glitter, with so many either loving it or hating it, that it made the Wednesday evening news.

As best as we can tell, the correction was entirely a paper-market affair – with the bulk of selling occurring on Comex, the US gold futures market, where speculative long positions equivalent to some 10 million ounces were literally dumped on the market in fairly short order.

Some say the selling was touched off by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Wednesday morning Congressional testimony on monetary policy and the state of the economy. By citing tentative signs of economic recovery while saying nothing about a possible third round of quantitative easing, or QE3 in the jargon of economists, the Chairman may have disappointed those who were betting on more monetary stimulus, thereby deflating any QE3 premium already in the market’s gold valuation.

Others say technical factors, especially the loss of upward momentum as the price approached $1,800 an ounce, triggered the sell off – aided, abetted, and exacerbated by automatic program trading and stop-loss selling.

Our forecast of much higher gold prices depends not one iota on the day-to-day ups and downs, no matter how extreme, in the yellow metal’s price. Instead, the average long-term price is entirely a function of world economic and political developments, which affect the intensity of investor interest (what we might call long-term hoarding demand) and on gold’s own supply/demand fundamentals.

Gold Price Today: CANADA STOCKS-TSX to extend loss as economic worries weigh


Toronto's main stock index looked set to open lower on Tuesday, extending Monday's lossesas renewed worries over the prospect of a recession in Europe and a slowdown in growth in resource-hungry China rattled investors.

A disorderly Greek default could leave Italy and Spain needing outside help to stop contagion spreading and cause more than 1 trillion euros of damage to the euro zone, a group representing Athens' bondholders warned.

FACTORS TO WATCH

* Canadian equity futures pointed to a lower open.

* U.S. stock index futures fell on renewed concerns that Greece and private bondholders would not meet a Thursday deadline to complete a debt swap, potentially opening the way for a messy default.

* European shares hit a one-week low morning as fresh concerns about growth in Europe and China, the world's top metals consumer, prompted investors to cut their risk exposure.

COMMODITY PRICE MOVES

* The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index, a global commodities benchmark, fell 0.45 percent in early trade.

* Brent crude futures fell more than $1 on concern about the health of the global economy.

* Gold prices fell more than 1 percent in Europe, pushing through support at $1,690 an ounce, as jitters over whether private creditors will agree to a Greek bond swap deal and wider euro zone growth pressured the euro.

* Copper fell for a third straight day, pulled lower by a stronger dollar and concerns about slower growth in China.

CANADIAN STOCKS TO WATCH

* Bank of Nova Scotia : The bank's first-quarter profit rose 15 percent, mainly helped by stronger trading revenue, and the bank raised its dividend.

* Centamin : The miner said it has temporarily halted operations at its flagship Sukari gold mine due to "illegal labour unrest".

* Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. : The oil and gas company said natural gas volumes that were shut-in in west central Alberta were back in production after it completed expanding its infrastructure in the region.

* Aecon Group Inc. : The construction company reported a 143 percent rise in quarterly earnings as margins improved on lower costs.

* Major Drilling Group International : The metals and minerals contract drilling services company reported a jump in third-quarter profit on continued demand from gold and copper projects.

ANALYST RECOMMENDATIONS

Following is a summary of research actions on Canadian companies reported by Reuters.

* Adriana Resources : National Bank Financial starts with outperform

* National Bank of Canada : CIBC raises price target to C$83 from C$80; BMO raises price target to C$87 from C$82; TD Securities raises price target to C$85 from C$81; Macquarie raises target price to C$85 from C$83

* Primaris Retail : Canaccord Genuity raises price target to C$24 from C$23.25; Macquarie raises price target to C$23.50 from C$22.50; TD securities raises price target to C$25 from C$24, rating buy

* Surge Energy : CIBC raises price target to C$13.50 from C$11; BMO raises price target to C$13 from C$12.50, rating outperform; Macquarie raises price target to C$14 from C$13, rating outperform

* Strad Energy Services : Paradigm capital raises price target to C$9 from C$7

* TransAlta Corp. : Canaccord Genuity cuts price target to c$23 from C$25; National Bank Financial cuts price target by C$1 to C$19; RBC cuts price target to C$19 from C$20; TD Securites cuts price target to C$19 from C$20, rating holdRead More

Gold Price Today: Gold Closes Lower On Global Cues


Gold futures closed lower for a second straight day Monday, mostly on some negative economic news from across the world with China cutting down its economic growth target for the year. Prices were also impacted by some weak economic data from Europe and the U.S.

Gold for April delivery, the most actively traded contract, dropped $5.90 or 0.3 percent to $1703.90 an ounce Monday on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gold traded at an intraday high of $1,718.00 an ounce and a low of $1,694.40 an ounce.

The precious metal had registered a loss of about 3.7 percent last week with investors preferring to drop riskier assets. Gold prices dropped more than 4 percent on Wednesday after the U.S. Fed failed to give any indication of further quantitative easing.

The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. unit against six major currencies, traded at 79.31 on Monday, down from 79.82 late on Friday. The dollar had scaled a high of 79.58 intraday.

The euro made gains against the dollar, reversing a three-day decline, as traders weighed the impact of China lowering its economic growth target for the year. Investors also await some key data from Europe and the U.S. during this week, including the Greek bond swap deal.

The euro traded higher against the dollar at $1.3224 on Monday, from $1.3197 late Friday. The euro had scaled a high of $1.3240 intraday.

China lowered its economic growth target for the year, indicating a deviation from its focus on rapid growth. China will now aim for 7.5 percent economic growth this year, Premier Wen Jiabao said on Monday at the annual meeting of the National People's Congress in Beijing. China had maintained the growth target at 8 percent for the past eight years.

The Chinese economy expanded 9.2 percent in 2011, easing from 10.4 percent in 2010.

Activity in the U.S. service sector unexpectedly expanded to 57.3 in February from 56.8 in January, according to the Institute for Supply Management in a report on Monday. A reading above 50 indicates growth in the service sector. Economists expected the index to edge down to 56.0.

Nevertheless, the ISM employment index declined to 55.7 percent from 57.4 percent last month, with the price index inflation gauge surging to 68.4 percent from 63.5 percent last month.

The eurozone composite purchasing managers index dropped to 49.3 in February from 50.4 in January, below the prior preliminary estimate of 49.7, according to data released by Markit Monday. A reading of less than 50 is indicative of contraction in private-sector business.Read More

Gold Price Today: Spot Gold Prices Pulling Back - Fred Dunsel


Gold prices plummeted last Wednesday after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s comments to Congress appeared to rule out further monetary easing. At one point, around $100 was wiped off the price during New York trading. By Friday, gold ended at $1,709.80 an ounce, its lowest settlement price since 25 January.

Despite last week’s dramatic price drop, many analysts remain bullish about gold. More than half the participants in the most recent Kitco News Gold Survey are confident that gold prices will continue to rise. Some analysts pointed out that investors remain confident in gold's appeal, given that real interest rates remain low and inflation remains a long-term concern for many.

Another key factor that will determine the future trajectory of gold prices is the physical demand, particularly from Asia. Last week’s price dip below $1,700 saw many Asian investors rush in to buy the precious metal, with many seeing it as a healthy correction, rather than the start of a bear market. Carlos Perez-Santalla, a precious metals broker at PVM Futures, who remains bullish about gold, noted that “worldwide economic and political factors have not changed.” As a testimony of gold’s continued attractiveness, Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS, pointed out that “a cheaper gold price last Thursday elicited a hard-to-miss response from physical players across various regions.” James Steel, chief commodity analyst at HSBC, agreed, saying that "declines of this magnitude, however, often attract emerging-market buyers and may also interest potential central bank buyers.”

Nonetheless, price volatility is likely to remain the norm in the coming weeks, as investors are wary about unexpected market developments. Jeffery Wright, a managing director and metals analyst with Global Hunter Securities, said, “You have traders and investors who do not want to be holding the bag if we do go into a real correction in gold prices. They’ll head to the exits very quickly without waiting to see what the aftermath is.” Read More

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Gold Price Today: Gold Monthly Fundamental Forecast March 2012


Outlook and Recommendation

Following the sharp gains for Gold prices during January when gold prices rose by 11% and the situation in February was much different. Gold price increased by only 2.07% from the end of January. What were the events and decisions that may have affected the direction of gold. Part of it might have to do with the recent decision of the EU leaders to approve the bailout package for Greece.

Gold prices started February with little changes; this no-trend, however soon turned into sharp gains.

If we separate February into two parts: with the breaking point at February 17th; during the first part of February, gold declined by 0.8%. During the second part of February, gold price climbed by 2.9%.

During the first part of February, the U.S dollar slightly depreciated against the Euro, the Canadian and Australian dollar; the last two currencies are usually strongly correlated with gold; during the second part of February, the U.S dollar sharply depreciated mainly against the Euro; this shift might partly explain the sharp increase of gold during the second part of the month.

Although this simplifies everything, there were a great deal of geopolitical problems, financial and economic crisis and turmoil, throughout the world, but mostly from the eurozone. When the markets are uneasy they turn to gold, and we saw this several times over the past few months. Global problems have no subsided, but investors are becoming more confident in the handling of these problems by the EU and are therefore taking on more risk. With slow but steady improvement in the US, investors are moving from the USD and Gold looking for more appealing investments. The short term for Gold will be a continued fall to trade between 1675 and 1700 throughout the end of the month and to increase over the second quarter moving towards 1800.

Understanding Gold:

When fundamental AND technical forces are in alignment, as with the current situation in gold, price action traders have an extremely valuable opportunity because trading with price action allows for much more accurate entries than other methods as well as providing traders with a “set and forget” style of trading when used in combination with simple risk to reward scenarios.

Gold prices always rise when there is uncertainty in the global economy. In times of uncertainty, wealthy investors tend to run towards gold. Suppose, rumors are flying high about some event in the world and this is increasing the uncertainty in the financial markets. Gold prices are on the rise again. You now buy three gold contracts. By the end of the week, each contract is up by 100 points. You make a cool $3,000 when you sell the three contracts. This way, you complete your third trade in a series of four trades.

This is a very simple gold trading strategy that depends on pyramiding your position with a series of four trades and removing all the profit from your account at the end of these four trades. With practice, you will find this gold trading strategy very simple and easy to implement.

Gold reacts to uncertainity in the markets A drop in major currencies can indicate a run into gold. Remember investors tend to take profit from gold so watch for trading opportunties when investors are taking profits, not moving out of the markets. Read More

Gold Price Today: Gold futures - Weekly outlook: March 5 - 9


Gold prices ended lower on Friday, as a broadly stronger U.S. dollar reduced the appeal of the precious metal while investors continued to readjust positions after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke diminished expectations for more U.S. monetary easing earlier in the week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery settled at USD1,713.35 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday, retreating 3.43% over the week, the largest weekly drop since mid-December.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,689.95 a troy ounce, the low from February 29 and short-term resistance at USD1,726.95, the high from March 1.

Gold’s losses on Friday came as the U.S. dollar rallied against its major counterparts, as investors shunned riskier assets amid fresh concerns over the debt crisis in the euro zone.

The dollar index, which tracks the performance of the greenback versus a basket of six other major currencies, rose 0.82% to settle the week at 79.48, the highest since February 17. On the week, the index climbed 1.32%.

Meanwhile, gold traders continued to rebalance their portfolios after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke dampened expectations for a third round of monetary easing in testimony to Congress on Wednesday.

Fed Chair Bernanke acknowledged the recent improvement in the labor market and said that higher oil prices could push up inflation.

Prices plunged almost 5% following Bernanke’s speech, or nearly USD80 per ounce, its largest one-day loss since December 2008, as traders unwound long positions fuelled by expectations a third round of bond-buying was imminent.

Technical selling also pressured gold after it failed to sustain gains above the USD1,790-an-ounce-level and break through key resistance at USD1,800.

Losses accelerated once prices dropped below USD1,700 an ounce, triggering fresh sell orders from hedge funds and large institutional investors and pushing down prices to as low as USD1,686 an ounce, the lowest since January 25.

Further weighing on the metal, market participants noted a large sell order on the Comex, said to have been 1 million ounces, or 31 tonnes, prompted by the Bernanke testimony.

Bernanke's remarks hit gold particularly hard because heavy bullish bets had been positioned leading up to Bernanke’s testimony and after the European Central Bank's second three-year long-term refinancing operation.

Gold prices rallied in recent weeks, boosted by growing expectations for further monetary easing measures from global central banks. Despite this week's pullback, the metal is still 9% higher this year after the Fed said in January it would keep U.S. interest rates near zero until at least 2014.

Earlier Wednesday, gold prices spiked to a three-month high of USD1,792.15 after the European Central Bank allotted EUR529.5 billion in loans to 800 lenders in its second long-term refinancing operation.

Under the operation, banks receive three-year loans in return for collateral at a rate fixed to the ECB's refinance rate of 1%. Together with the first auction, the ECB has now injected EUR1 trillion of 3-year funds into the system.

Gold can benefit from such an environment of easy money because of expectations that ample liquidity would put a damper on the value of paper currencies and boost inflation.

In the near-term, global financial service provider HSBC Holdings sees further downside to gold prices, citing the metal’s inability to clear USD1,800 an ounce and the paucity of emerging-market buying in recent weeks.

In the longer term, however, the bank expects prices to remain well-supported “even without further easing, as monetary policy is still highly accommodative.”

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver for May delivery settled USD34.81 a troy ounce by close of trade on Friday, falling 1.95% on the week in volatile price swings.

Silver prices rallied nearly 4% on Tuesday to hit the highest level since mid-September, after prices broke through a key resistance level close to USD35.73 a troy ounce.

Futures gave back those gains and more on Wednesday, plunging almost 7%, weighed down by the Bernanke speech. Despite the sharp drop, futures are still up almost 25% since the start of 2012.

Meanwhile, copper for May delivery rose 1.2% over the week to settle at USD3.906 a pound.

In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s data on U.S. non-farm payrolls, to gauge the strength of the country’s economic recovery. Market participants will also be continuing to watch developments in Europe, ahead of an interest rate announcement by the ECB on Thursday.Read More

Gold Price Today : Gold, Silver and Oil Trading GLD, SLV, USO


SPDR Gold Trust (ETF), NYSE:GLD, iShares Silver Trust (ETF), NYSE:SLV, United States Oil Fund LP (ETF) NYSE:USO

Gold, Silver and Oil


The Overall Fundamentals
The commodity sector reversed gains last week due to a number of reasons ranging from concerns over the downside risks to the global economic recovery to ongoing worries on the sovereign debt crisis in the EuroZone to dampened hopes about the the US Fed’s QE-3 intentions.

Precious Metals
The precious metal complex fell led by Gold and Silver. The precious Yellow metal fell more than $100 on the US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony last Wednesday.

Investors viewed that the Chairman’s expectation that growth in the coming quarters would be ‘at a pace close to or somewhat above the pace that was registered during the second half of last year’ is an indication of no further quantitative easing (QE).

The disappointment was exacerbated by St. Louis Fed President James Bullard’s comment that no further easing is needed as US economic data improves. He also expected US’ unemployment rate to drop to 7.8% by the end of this year as a ‘moderate expansion’ helps improve the labor market.

Although speculations of further quantitative easing (QE) by the US Fed have been tamed, this has not dampened LTN’s Bullish POV on Gold’s. Shayne and I both believe that monetary policy by central banks will be positive for the precious Yellow metal.

Note: Gold, despite persistent sovereign debt crisis in the EuroZone, has not been rising in tandem with the USD like it did in last few years. So, we believe that the Fed will continue to weigh growth higher than inflation while the ECB prioritizes price stability. This would give the USD better opportunity to depreciate further, thus boosting Gold price. Another issue is that further rises in Crude Oil prices may deteriorate the US recovery prospect, making the Fed more “Dovish” in its monetary stance.
Energy

In the Crude Oil complex, the front-month contract for WTI Crude Oil fell for the 1st time in 4 wks, by -2.80%, to settle at 106.7 on Friday. The contract rose to a 9-month high of 110.55 earlier in the week. The equivalent Brent Crude contract slipped -1.45% last week, after rising for 5 straight weeks.

As tensions over Iran escalated over the past months, Crude Oil prices rose on worries that Crude Oil suspension in Iran would bid up prices, affecting especially European buyers.

Crude Oil prices continued rallying earlier in the week with WTI and Brent Crude tapped important levels above 110 and above 125 respectively, after a report stating that a pipeline in Saudi Arabia was attacked. The rumor was denied by Saudi’s spokesman, but the dramatic reaction in the Crude Oil market indicated investors’ sensitivity on possible Crude Oil supply shortage.

There has been talk in recent weeks, as Crude Oil prices rose, that the fragile Global economic recovery would be hampered by rising Crude Oil prices. Such concerns became apparent as Brent Crude Thursday breached the Y 2011-high and approached the Y 2008 crisis mark.

In the surveillance note to the G-20, the IMF warned of major downside risks, including risks from high Crude Oil prices, facing the Global economy.

The World lender stated that ‘the overarching risk remains an intensified Global ‘paradox of thrift’ as households, firms, and governments around the world reduce demand…This risk is further exacerbated by fragile financial systems, high public deficits and debt and already-low interest rates’. It went on to say that ‘advanced economies are experiencing weak and bumpy growth, reflecting both the legacies from the crisis and spillovers from Europe’.

Despite approval of the 2nd bailout to Greece, market confidence towards the 17-nation EuroZone has remained weak.

Following S&P’s downgrade of Greece’s rating, Moody’s announced that the debt-ridden Country’s rating to C from Ca, warning that investors participating in the country’s PSI program would likely receive less than 70% of the face value of their holdings as the deal contains ‘a distressed exchange, and hence a default’.

Spain breached its commitment with the EU and raised its deficit target of 5.8% of GDP this year from previous goal of 4.4%. These added worries to the region’s economy as well as the Euro.

Nat Gas prices weakened again last week. The DOE-EIA reported that gas inventory dropped -82 bcf to 2 595 bcf in the week ended 24 February. Stocks were +756 bcf above the same period last year and +780 bcf, or +45.0%, above the 5-yr average of 1 733 bcf.

Baker Hughes reported that the number of gas rigs fell -19 units to 691 in the week ended March 2. Oil rigs soared +28 units to 1 293 and miscellaneous rigs dipped -1 unit to 5, sending the total number of rigs to 1 989 units. Directionally oriented combined oil, gas, and miscellaneous rigs climbed +5 units to 215 while horizontal rigs increased +5 units to 1 170 and vertical rigs fell -2 units to 604 during the week. Read More

Friday, February 17, 2012

Gold Price Today: Share prices regain footing in early trading, CI up ; Gold price up 23 sen


Share prices on Bursa Malaysia regained their footing in the early trading Friday, tracking gains in overnight close on Wall Street with heavyweights like British American Tobacco and Sime Darby spurring the interest, dealers said.

At 9.30am, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) stood at 1,556.95, up 6.46 points, after opening 3.19 points better at 1,553.68.

Encouraging economic data from the United States and hopes that Greece would secure the bailout aid package resulted in global rallies in stocks, dealers said.

HwangDBS Vickers Research said this is expected to lift investors' sentiments on the local bourse today.

The benchmark FBM KLCI after losing 10.8 points or 0.7 per cent yesterday may attempt to overcome the support-turned-resistance line of 1,555 ahead, it said in a research note.

The Finance Index gained 39.52 points to 13,811.46, the Plantation Index rose 30.569 points to 8,825.14 and the Industrial Index advanced 29.84 points to 2,921.09.

The FBM Emas Index surged 49.181 points to 10,829.53, the FBM Mid 70 Index jumped 65.51 points to 12,349.6 and the FBM Ace Index rose 25.33 points to 4,680.3.

The market breath was positive, with gainers outpacing losers 303 to 74, while 191 counters were unchanged, 920 untraded and 27 others suspended.

Turnover stood at 338.698 million shares worth RM160.961 million.

Among actives, Tasek Corporation gained 59 sen to RM8.59, Amway and British American Tobacco each rose 20 sen to RM10 and RM52.50, respectively.

Heavyweights, Maybank earned four sen to RM8.54, Sime darby added 16 sen to RM9.70, Petronas Chemicals and CIMB both were flat at RM6.88 and RM7.25, respectively Read More

Gold Price Today: Gold prices skyrocket leaving consumers without enough insurance


Insurance policies are supposed to protect us in the event of a loss, but consumers are finding they can't recoup the true value of their jewelry when it's lost or stolen.

If you lose a valuable piece of jewelry, you won't get a similar model ring unless your paperwork is up to date. Jewelry claims don't work like most car insurance claims where you typically get a check to cover the replacement of a similar make and model car if your vehicle is totaled.

I hadn't thought about it until it happened to a friend of ours," said a consumer named Janelle.

Consumers unable to replace lost or stolen jewelry

Tales of loss and theft are common in the jewelry business, but there's a new layer of heartbreak that consumers are learning the hard way.

"We know someone who lost her ring and when she went to get a new ring, she had to pay a considerable amount of money because the value of gold had gone up," Janelle said.

"I think it's very common that people are underinsured," said Sharon Riley, Certified Gemologist Appraiser with Gasser Fine Jewelers .

As a certified gemologist with the American Gem Society , Riley works with customers and insurance companies on replacing jewelry.

She said insurance companies pay the amount on your appraisal even if it doesn't cover replacement at today's costs. For example, say your appraisal from a few years ago says $300 and you lost that piece of jewelry.

"If the customer is not insured high enough and the piece is worth $900, he is only going to get $300," Riley said.

It's easy to be under-insured today because the price of gold is up considerably. In the last 10 years, the spot price of gold is up $1,600. This week, it's closing at more than $1,700. The spike in prices means you can make money and lose money. Most people are focusing on making money by selling their gold. It isn't until the worst case scenario happens that consumers are realizing they can lose money.

"Insurance companies suggest you get your appraisal updated every two to three years," Riley said.

Updating them every few years is important because you want an accurate value. You don't want an appraisal that's too high, because you'll pay a higher insurance premium than you have to.

Once you get that appraisal, talk to your insurance agent. Under most policies, you need to schedule expensive jewelry. It's not automatically covered under your homeowners policy. Your agent can help you with specifics and pricing.

Gold Price Today: Gold Fields Profit Jumps 26% on Higher Rand Price for Metal


Gold Fields Ltd., the fourth-largest producer of the metal, posted a 26 percent increase in fourth- quarter profit on higher prices of the metal in rand, beating analyst expectations.

Earnings excluding one-time items rose to 2.65 billion rand ($341 million), or 3.68 rand a share, in the three months through Dec. 31, from 2.11 billion rand, or 2.91 rand, in the previous quarter, it said in a statement today.

That compares with the median estimate of 3.62 rand a share by five analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Analysts who track South African gold producers measure quarter-on-quarter earnings excluding one-time items.

South African gold producers benefited from a 12 percent jump in the average local price of the metal in the quarter from the prior three months as the rand weakened against the dollar. Johannesburg-based Gold Fields produces about half of its output in the country and also has mines in Ghana, Australia and Peru.

Production fell to 883,000 ounces in the quarter from 900,000 ounces in the previous quarter, Gold Fields said. Annual output was 0.3 percent lower at 3.49 million ounces. The company declared a final dividend for the year of 2.30 rand a share.

Producers in South Africa, the continent’s largest producer of gold, gain from a weaker rand because they sell much of their output in dollars and pay most costs in rand. The average rand- dollar exchange rate slid 13 percent in the quarter from the previous three months, its biggest decline in 12 quarters. Read More

Gold Price Today: Higher Gold Price Contributes to Improved Earnings


Gold Fields Limited (Gold Fields) (JSE, NYSE, NASDAQ Dubai: GFI) today announced net earnings for the December quarter of R2,605 million compared with R2,055 million in the September quarter and a loss of R777 million in the December 2010 quarter.  In US dollar terms net earnings for the December quarter were US$336 million, compared with US$293 million in the September quarter and a loss of US$106 million in the December 2010 quarter. Net earnings of R7,027 million (US$973 million) for the year ended December 2011 compared with R1,139 million (US$153 million) for the year ended December 2010.
December 2011 quarter salient features:
  • Group attributable equivalent gold production of 883,000 ounces;
  • Total cash cost decreased from US$851 per ounce to US$767 per ounce;
  • Operating margin of 56 per cent and NCE margin of 28 per cent reflecting good cost control and higher prices;
  • Project pipeline gaining momentum;
  • Fourth place ranking in the resources sector of the Dow Jones sustainability index.
A final dividend of 230 SA cents per share is payable on 12 March 2012, giving a total dividend for the year ended December 2011 of 330 SA cents per share.
The full results are available on the Gold Fields website: http://www.goldfields.co.za

Notes to editors

About Gold Fields
Gold Fields is one of the world's largest unhedged producers of gold with attributable annualised production of 3.5 million gold equivalent ounces from eight operating mines in Australia, Ghana, Peru and South Africa. Gold Fields also has an extensive and diverse global growth pipeline with four major projects in resource development and feasibility, with construction decisions expected in the next 18 to 24 months.  Gold Fields has total attributable gold equivalent Mineral Reserves of 76.7 million ounces and Mineral Resources of 225.4 million ounces. Gold Fields is listed on the JSE Limited (primary listing), the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), NASDAQ Dubai Limited, Euronext in Brussels (NYX) and the Swiss Exchange (SWX).
Sponsor: J.P. Morgan Equities Limited

Enquiries
Investor Enquiries
Zakira Amra Tel: +27-11-562-9775 Mobile: +27(0)79-694-0267 email: Zakira.Amra@goldfields.co.za
Willie Jacobsz Tel: +508-839-1188 Mobile: +857-241-7127 email: Willie.Jacobsz@gfexpl.com

Media Enquiries
Sven Lunsche Tel: +27-11-562-9763 Mobile: +27(0)83-260-9279 email: Sven.Lunsche@goldfields.co.za
SOURCE Gold Fields Limited Read More

Gold Price Today : Gold Prices Eke Out Gain on Hopes of Greek Bond Swap


Gold prices reversed directions Thursday and eked out a gain on a Reuters report that a Greek bond swap deal could be completed over the weekend.

Gold for April delivery closed up 30 cents at $1,728.40 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price has traded as high as $1,731.10 and as low as $1,706.70 an ounce, while the spot price was up $1, according to Kitco's gold index.

Silver prices lost 3 cents at $33.37 an ounce while the U.S. dollar index was shedding 0.49% at $79.32.

The euro gained traction against the dollar, which was helping support gold on a report that a Greek bond swap deal could be launched over the weekend. Some of Greece pairing down its debt comes in the form of a bond swap where holders trade in current bonds for new longer dated ones at a lower interest rate.

Gold had been getting hammered as the threat of Moody's downgrading 17 global and 114 European financial institutions propped up the dollar as the safe haven of choice. Gold's reversal then also triggered any short covering -- where traders buy back previously sold positions. "No one really wants to be short in front of differing headlines minute to minute from Greece," says George Gero, senior vice president at RBC Capital Markets.

"Right now it's that juxtaposition between European sovereign situation, particularly around Greece," says Will Rhind, head of U.S. operations for ETF Securities, "and that has an effect on the currencies which effects gold." Read More

Gold Price Today: Gold up on Greece bailout hopes; heads for weekly gain


Gold, on course for a weekly rise of 0.8 percent, has moved in the range between US$1,700 and $1,760 since the beginning of the month, closely tracking the progress and setbacks in Greece's struggle to obtain a 130-billion euro bailout.

Hopes that Greece has finally done enough to secure a second bailout after Athens set out extra budget savings demanded by its international lenders helped riskier assets rally in the last trading day of the week.

Technical signals may have turned upbeat for gold, said Nick Trevethan, senior commodity strategist at ANZ in Singapore.

"We're at the point where we have tried the downside three or four times in the past two weeks and failed. The frustration with failure to breach the $1,700-$1,710 level might put the focus back on resistance," he said.

Lofty oil prices on concerns about supply disruption from Iran are also expected to underpin sentiment in gold, he added.

Spot gold rose 0.2 percent to $1,732.39 an ounce by 0632 GMT. Gold touched a low of $1,705.09 in the previous session, lowest since February 10.

U.S. gold gained 0.3 percent to $1,734.30.

The data from the World Gold Council, showing that global gold demand in 2011 hit a 14-year high on investment, China buying and central bank purchases, also supported gold.

Gold, traditionally a safe-haven asset, has been tracking riskier assets in the past few months as the turmoil caused by the euro zone debt crisis forces investors to sell off their gold positions to cover losses elsewhere.

Though there is increased optimism on Greece's bailout deal, investors remained cautious as the euro zone is hardly out of the woods and its debt crisis can continue to disrupt the global financial markets.

"This week is the first week in a long run that we have such tight range," said a Tokyo-based trader, referring to the narrow range of around $32 for spot gold.

"People, especially in Asia have adopted the wait-and-see attitude. Until Europe decides what to do with Greece things will be quiet."

But he said the longer-term outlook for gold will stay rosy as the U.S. Federal Reserve has pledged to keep interest rates low until at least late 2014, boosting inflation outlook and supporting bullion.

Spot silver edged up 0.2 percent to $33.51, off a three-week low of $32.64 hit in the previous session. The metal remained the top performer of the complex with a 21 percent year-to-day climb.

Spot platinum gained 0.6 percent to $1,629.74, headed for a weekly decline of 1.4 percent, after six straight weeks of gains.

Spot palladium was flat at $690.97, but on course for its biggest one-week drop in six weeks. Read More

Gold Price Today : Gold ticks up on euro recovery amid Greek optimism, risk rally possible in PM


Spot gold edged $2.80 higher to $1,731.00/1,731.80 per ounce, recovering after yesterday's 1.3-percent fall. On the charts, resistance is now pegged at $1,737 and then $1,740, while support stands at $1,730 and the 21-day moving average of $1,721. The metal is in better shape to break out on the upside after last night's positive close.

Asian markets remained quiet overnight amid a lack of volume in the overall precious metals complex, while little action is expected today ahead of next week's Greek bailout decision.

Eurozone officials said on Thursday that they were putting the finishing touches to a second bailout deal for Greece for approval on Monday.

The euro, which dropped to one-month lows under 1.30 against the dollar on Thursday, was trading around a steadier 1.3135 this morning - hopes have picked up that Greece has done enough to secure the bailout after it slashed its budgets further.

But the swingeing cuts are unlikely to find favour with an already indignant Greek public, a trader said.

"With such obvious tensions simmering barely beneath the surface, Monday feels a long way off, and headline risk will be heightened over the weekend," he said.

Some positivity emanated from the recent run of largely constructive US economic figures - jobless claims unexpectedly fell last week to a near-four-year low, January housing starts came in better than forecast and the pace of factory activity gained momentum.

And positive CPI figures are also anticipated today - these could prompt a risk rally in afternoon trading hours.

But while the US economy appears to be improving, Europe's economic activity is restrained and China has yet to pick up fully in the wake of the Lunar New Year. This is seen keeping the short-term picture uncertain in the wider commodity sector.

Among other precious metals, silver was steady at $33.49/33.53 per ounce - the metal dropped to a three-week low of $32.64 per ounce yesterday.

Elsewhere, platinum rose $2 to $1,630/1,640 per ounce, having fallen to a 10-day low of $1,603.50 per ounce in the previous session. But palladium remained in negative territory at $687/704, down $8.50 but higher than a three-week low of $676.50 hit on Thursday.

The PGMs are likely to keep be supported by the work stoppage over wages at Implats' Rustenburg mines, which started on January 18 and has already cost the company more than 60,000 ounces in lost output.

"With a production volume of around 920,000 ounces planned for this year, Rustenburg accounts for 14 percent of the world’s total platinum production," broker Commerzbank said. "If no agreement is reached in the near future, this should lend clear support to the price of platinum." Read More

Gold Price Today: per Ounce Spot gold price per gram; Silver price per ounce; Gold Rates Silver Rates Today

Gold price Market News Silver Price Market News Today:
Both gold and silver price trends skewed positively during the last trading session. Gold and silver prices were both posting green at the halfway point in the session and the positive momentum carried through to the end of day close.

Price trend-lines for spot gold per gram and spot silver per ounce were posting green at the mid-day mark of the session as well. Gold price trends moved positively last session as its safe haven appeal grew stronger. The surprise cancellation of the meeting between eurozone leaders to solidify bailout funds for Greece made a lot of investors nervous. As a result, safe haven appeal of precious metals notched higher.

Close Price review for precious metal gold and silver contracts:
Gold and silver contracts both finished the last session in the green. April contract gold closed the last session green by .61 percent at 1728.10 per troy ounce. Silver contract for March delivery finished the last session higher by .18 percent at 33.41 per troy ounce.

Spot gold price per gram and spot silver price per ounce trends:
After last session close, spot gold price per gram trends were posting green but spot silver price per ounce trends were posting red. Prior to opening bell this morning, spot gold price per gram and spot silver price per ounce trends were posting in the red. Spot gold per gram was at 55.25 and spot silver per ounce was at 33.23. Read More

Gold prices today: Gold price gains Rs 60, silver falls by Rs 300


Gold prices today rose by Rs 60 to trade at Rs 28,340 per ten gram at the bullion market here on seasonal demand and firm global trends.

Silver price, however, fell by Rs 300 to Rs 55,900 per kg on reduced offtake.

Traders said pick up in demand supported by ongoing marriage season amid firming global trend mainly helped gold prices to gain further ground.

Reduced offtake by industrial units and coin makers at existing higher levels led to fall in silver, they said.

Gold in global markets, which normally set price trend on the domestic front, rose by 7 dollar to 1728.10 dollar an ounce in New York last night.

On the domestic front, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity advanced by Rs 60 each to Rs 28,340 and Rs 28,200 per ten grams respectively, after gaining Rs 115 yesterday.

However, sovereign continued to be asked around previous level of Rs 23,400 per piece of eight gram in scattered deals.

Silver ready fell by Rs 300 to Rs 55,900 per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 355 to Rs 56,300 per kg.

Silver coins remained steady at Rs 67,000 for buying and Rs 68,000 for selling of 100 pieces. Read More

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Petrol Price : UPDATE 2-China raises fuel prices 3-4 pct to record highs


China will raise the ceiling for retail prices of gasoline and diesel by 3 to 4 percent from Wednesday, the first hike in 10 months and a move that lifts prices to record highs and can help refineries improve margins.

The increase, at 300 yuan per tonne or roughly 4 cents a litre, was much anticipated by the market and offset a previous price cut last October.

"The price rise is conducive to motivating refiners and ensuring domestic fuel supplies," the National Development & Reform Commission, the country's economic planner, said in a statement on its website (www.ndrc.gov.cn)

The government timed the price increase as domestic inflationary pressure has eased and after millions of Chinese returned from the Lunar New Year celebrations.

Policymakers have indicated in recent comments that price pressures are easing, suggesting inflation is not an urgent priority.

An earlier domestic diesel shortage has also eased after oil firms raised production to record rates during the last two months of 2011.

"Demand has weakened during the Chinese New Year holiday period and inventory has climbed, so supply tightness has eased," said a Sinopec fuel marketing official.

Following the adjustment, retail gasoline prices will go up by 3.3 percent from Oct. 9 levels to 9,380 yuan per tonne, or about $1.06 per litre. Diesel prices will rise by 3.6 percent to 8,530 yuan, or about $1.11 per litre, according to Reuters calculations.

The move will improve refining margins for leading oil firms such as Petroleum and Chemical Corp (Sinopec) and PetroChina , which have long struggled with depressed margins.

Refineries run by Sinopec Corp are operating at a loss even though the top Chinese oil company by sales raised ex-factory fuel prices and extended other incentives this year, several refinery officials said.

NEW SCHEME

The NDRC sets fuel prices using a secret formula based on a basket of crude oil prices, including the price of Brent, Dubai and Cinta.

The government fell short of announcing a new fuel pricing scheme that is more market-linked, which the industry had expected to see as early as December.

"The new fuel pricing scheme is in the process of revamping. We will solicit public opinion after all aspects reach consensus about the new scheme," NDRC said.

The NDRC normally starts to consider changing fuel prices if the 22-day moving average of international crude oil prices rises or falls more than 4 percent, in addition to giving consideration to other factors such as inflation, fuel supply and demand.

A revamp could include shortening the adjustment period from 22 working days and changing the composition of the basket of crudes to which pump prices are linked.

Such a scheme would bolster refining margins and help prevent the shortages that have often plagued the world's second-largest fuel market as oil refiners are discouraged to pump at a loss.

NDRC said China's oil supplies are facing "severe challenges", given that the Iranian nuclear crisis trigger volatility and a surge in global oil prices, making it more necessary to push through price reform to curb excessive consumption.

China's top refineries will trim their crude oil processing volumes in February to the lowest levels in four months after running hard in winter to meet a seasonal demand spike and ensure ample supplies during Chinese New Year holidays, a Reuters poll showed.

Political tension surrounding Iran and the Middle East, along with a severe cold snap across Europe, have lifted oil prices in recent weeks. Front-month Brent touched $116.70 per barrel, its highest since early August, on Tuesday.

China's last retail ceiling price change was on Oct. 9, when the government cut gasoline and diesel by about 3 percent to reflect falls in global crude oil prices. ($1 = 6.312 Chinese Yuan) (Writing by Fayen Wong, Additional reporting by Jim Bai, editing by Jane Baird) Read More

Petrol Price : Expert expects gas prices in Chicago to hit $4.60 by May


Get ready for another round of pain at the pump: gas at $4 (or higher) a gallon. After rising 19 cents a gallon in the past four weeks, regular unleaded gasoline now averages $3.48 a gallon, vs. $3.12 a year ago and $2.67 in February 2010. And prices could spike another 60 cents or more by May.

“I think it’s going to be a chaotic spring, with huge price increases in some places,” says Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service, who expects average prices to peak at $4.05 nationally, although he and other industry trackers say prices could be sharply higher in some places, such as Chicago.

“You could see prices in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Washington and other major metropolitan areas at $4.60 or higher,” agrees energy analyst Patrick DeHaan of price tracker Gasbuddy.com.

Rising prices are an annual spring ritual, due largely to seasonal demand. Refiners also switch from winter formulations to more expensive seasonal formulations to meet stringent environmental standards, which can tack on 15 cents a gallon, says Brian Milne of energy tracker Televent DTN.

This year’s earlier-than-usual run-up is more about anticipation than current supply and demand. Last week, the Energy Department reported anemic U.S. consumption -- the lowest levels since September 2001. Domestic crude oil prices, now about $98 a barrel, are near six-week lows.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East are bolstering crude prices, while speculators are boosting futures contracts, betting on global supply disruptions and tighter refining capacity. Kloza notes that several U.S. and overseas refiners have experienced temporary or permanent closures.

So far, $4 a gallon has proven to be the upper limit consumers will pay. Last April, national prices peaked at about $3.98 a gallon. In 2008, a sharp run-up ended when prices hit an all-time average of $4.11 a gallon that summer.

“Higher demand, Iran, lost refining capacity are all potential problems,” Milne says. “We’ll get over $4 a gallon, but it’s going to be tough to sustain that level. People will drive less.”

Lisa Margonelli, author of Oil on the Brain: Petroleum’s Long, Strange Trip to Your Tank, says consumers will be vulnerable to rising prices until the U.S. develops alternative fuels such as natural gas.

“The increase in gas prices last year sucked $100 billion out of the economy,” she says. “We aren’t going to get a break because there is no long-term grand strategy to keep prices down.” Read More

Petrol Price : Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of February 6, 2012


March Crude Oil closed lower last week after posting an expanded range. The market continued its downslide that began five weeks ago when it topped out at $103.90.

Heavy selling pressure early in the week drove the market close to a key 50 percent price level at $95.40. After it reached the low for the week on Thursday at $95.44, traders showed their respect for the 50 percent level by creating a short-covering rally that prevented the market from closing on its low.

The weekly chart indicates layers of support this week. The first level is the aforementioned $95.40. This is followed by uptrending Gann angle support at $93.92. A break through this price will set up the market for a test of the December 16 swing bottom at $92.95.

A possible double-top chart pattern is still in the works with $103.20 and $103.90 the key highs. A trade through these levels will reaffirm the main uptrend while a break through $92.95 will not only turn the main trend to down, but it will also confirm the double-top.

Based on the main range of $75.92 to $103.90, a break through $92.95 will put the market in a position to test another 50 percent to 61.8 percent retracement zone at $89.91 to $86.61. Given the nature of the trade in the crude oil market, traders should always watch for technical bounces when support or resistance levels are reached.

The stronger U.S. Dollar early in the week had much to do with the crude oil weakness. As the Greenback improved, commodities priced in dollars became more expensive and their demand fell. This action contributed to crude oil’s over 3 percent drop from Monday to Thursday. The market stabilized a bit ahead of Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Report, and rallied on Friday when the report came out better than analysts expected.

The fact that crude oil is trading near an important mid-point on the charts is a strong indication of indecision. Since topping near $104.00, crude oil has steadily declined on low demand for product despite better U.S. economic reports. Additionally, prices have fallen since the European Union decided to postpone an embargo of Iranian crude oil. Finally, the easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz has also given bullish traders an excuse to book profits. In addition, speculators took out the “war” premium. Psychologically, the failure to hold $100 per barrel probably helped accelerate the market’s decline the past two weeks.

The chart action indicates both trader uncertainty and trader indifference. The uncertainty is being triggered by worries that Greece may not be able to negotiate favorable debt structure terms with the European Union. The fact that oil has been falling for weeks while the Euro has been rising is proof of this. The weaker Dollar has not fueled upside price activity at all, but a strong Dollar, on the other hand, has translated into downside pressure.

The rising stock market has not helped crude prices either. This is a strong indication that although there is demand for higher yielding assets, institutions and fund managers have decided to leave crude oil out of their portfolios.

This leads me to conclude that the supply and demand situation is having the biggest influence on the market at this time. It took a while, but traders have finally caught on to the fact that supply is rising and this means lower prices to follow.

Trader should watch for the decline to continue early this week, however, short-traders should be careful not to get caught in a wicked short-covering rally when the market tests the key support levels at $93.92, $92.95 or $89.91.

Factors Affecting Crude Oil This Week:

Supply and Demand: Demand continues to fall, driving up supply. This is the simple explanation for the recent drop in prices. Until the weekly inventory report begins to show an uptrend, traders should expect this report to cast a bearish pall on the market.

European Sovereign Debt Crisis: Uncertainty over Greece is hurting crude oil prices. On February 9 the European Central Bank is going to decide monetary policy. Last month it held interest rates steady at 1.00 percent, triggering the start of a rally in the Euro. Traders will be watching to see if the central bank remains optimistic about the Euro Zone economic situation. If traders buy the Euro with clarity and conviction then the Dollar will fall. At some point, oil traders are going to have to pounce on the market if prices become cheap enough.

Geopolitical Events: Taking Iran out of the equation has definitely hurt prices. Speculators have left the market but can quickly return if a bullish situation arises.

FXEmpire.com is the Forex flagship site of the FX Empire Network. The FX Empire Network provides readers with the most expert and most timely technical analyses, fundamental analyses and news-pieces; this in order to empower them to make for themselves the best possible financial decisions.
FXEmpire.com is updated daily with video based Technical Analyses, text based Fundamental Analyses and news-pieces. Our readers receive a review of the past week’s market activity coupled with an outlook for the upcoming week and regular market updates. Read More

Petrol Price : Winter weather sends Brent crude to six-month high


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Brent crude hit a six-month high on the back of the continuing severe European winter weather, while concerns of rising tensions in Iran also added to supply concerns.

With temperatures plunging across Europe and Russia, Moscow has diverted its natural gas for exports for domestic usage, causing a shortage. European energy groups are turning to gas-oil for heating, and in Italy, power plants are to switch from gas to fuel oil, as a way of reducing gas consumption.

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ICE March Brent hit $116.70 a barrel, its highest level since last August. In European early afternoon trading, the global benchmark was up 5 cents at $115.88 a barrel.

The rise in heating oil demand has meant that refining margins have increased. The price differential between gas oil and Brent crude widened by 54 cents to $17.22 a barrel, suggesting a further rise in crude oil prices as refiners turn to buy more crude oil to meet demand.

“While a late season cold snap tends to pack less of a punch and gas oil stocks are generally healthy, a more severe cold period or consumer rush to buy may strain the European gasoil balance given a heavy first quarter refinery maintenance period,” said analysts at Deutsche Bank.

The current level of Brent in dollars per barrel is higher than March of last year and in euros per barrel, “it is higher than at the peak of the Libyan war,” said Olivier Jakob at oil consultants Petromatrix based in Switzerland.

With Japan also facing a colder than normal winter, as well as forecasts pointing to a colder than average February-April, demand for heating oil is expected to remain firm.

Fears of a ratcheting up of tensions between the west and Iran caused by US proposals of tightening sanctions also added to expectations of a further crude oil price rally.

Across the Atlantic, the West Texas Intermediate continued to weaken on oversupply worries. The Nymex March WTI fell 81 cents a barrel to $96.11. The fall in the US benchmark meant that the price differential between Brent and WTI jumped, hitting $20 for the first time since October. Read More

Petrol Price : Oil companies hike fuel prices anew


After cutting back fuel prices in the past two weeks, they have again increased fuel prices to reflect the slight increase in world oil prices last week.

In separate text messages, Chevron Philippines Inc., Petron Corp., Pilipinas Shell Petroleum Corp., Seaoil Philippines Inc., and Total (Philippines) Corp. said they hiked the price of unleaded and premium gasoline by P0.25 per liter, regular gasoline by P0.60 per liter, and diesel and kerosene by P0.30 per liter at 6 a.m., Tuesday.

The latest price adjustment is the first for the month, after two price cuts in the last two weeks of January, local oil companies have increased unleaded and premium gasoline prices by P2.65 per liter, regular gasoline by P2.55 per liter, diesel by P1 per liter, and kerosene by P0.80 per liter.

According to the Department of Energy monitoring, following the price increase the suggested retail price of unleaded and premium gasoline now amounts to P50.98 per liter to 59.09 per liter, diesel P43.84 per liter to P47.43 per liter, and kerosene P49.91 per liter to P55.46 per liter.Read More

Petrol Price : COLUMN-Spot oil's rise masks steady prices in 2015


Forward oil prices are trading at record discounts as the market responds to fears about near-term shortfalls while also pricing in a big increase in supplies from the Americas and the Middle East over the next four years.

Front-month Brent futures have been trading above $116 a barrel, the highest level since November and before that September 2011, as freezing weather across Europe, signs of revival in North America and renewed interest in the Brent-WTI spread shake the oil market out of its recent torpor.

But prices for deferred futures contracts such as December 2015 have barely moved and remain firmly stuck below $100.

Throughout the boom of 2004-2008, spot and forward oil prices increasingly moved in tandem. Prices along the length of the curve became tightly integrated as well as correlated with other asset classes such as equities. But spot and forward oil prices are now segmented, both from one another and from share markets.

Four-year forward prices are trading at a record discount of $19 per barrel (20 percent) compared with oil for immediate delivery.

Deferred prices have historically been much less volatile, and analysts usually claim they are a better guide to market expectations about the long-term marginal cost of production.

During the 2008 price spike, forward prices generally rose in line with the spot market, cresting over $140 by July 2008, as traders anticipated immediate shortages and lack of spare capacity would last indefinitely in a world of peaking oil supplies.Read More

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